Swiss bankers radiate collective confidence. The latest EY Banking Barometer shows 94% expect their operating results to improve long-term. Their optimism rests not on innovation or service improvements, but on the resilience of the industry, specially “during periods of uncertainty and volatility”.
But speaking to senior bankers privately a different picture emerges. “The attraction absolutely remains for Switzerland as a safe haven over other places,” one admits, “but processes are difficult because of legacy procedures.” He’s not talking about minor inconveniences. He means the book-thick account openings, the KYC requirements that transform every incoming transfer into an investigation of the client’s entire financial past. More clients might showing interest out tradition of safe haven, but it risks becoming a bureaucratic fortress.
More damning: instability isn’t translating to opportunity. A banker working the Latin American market observes that clients with US accounts aren’t rushing to transfer their family assets to Switzerland. Multimillionaire families don’t feel disadvantaged by the political turbulence, at a time when Latin American countries are veering to right.
"Swiss banks are betting on chaos"
A senior executive shows other concerns; sanctions to start, signalling that not all assets interest in a safe haven are directly sustainable business. There’s also a shadow of fear of US retaliation if the Swiss Financial Services Center aggressively pursuits fleeing assest. Maybe a memory of how the US demonstrated its power protecting its wealth management interests against Switzerland, after the Financial Crisis.
Swiss banks are betting on chaos they cannot control while ignoring service failures they could fix. Collectively, they project confidence in geopolitical instability delivering clients to their doorstep, betting on an unchanged business model in a ruptured world.
Privately, they acknowledge the obstacles. The equation has changed. Nothing, not even instability automatically means inflows. Without differentiated service justifying their costs and complexity, the safe haven promise becomes merely a business hope.
Sam Rogers is a seasoned banker who has spent over two decades at leading Swiss banks. For reasons of confidentiality, the author writes here under a pseudonym.
